Brussels’ current focus on reciprocity and fairer competition in Europe’s C...
2020-10-13 1 ENGLISH REPORTS
For the US dollar, is all US fiscal stimulus created equal? One might conclude that another round of stimulus would carry the USD higher, like it did throughout 2018,as US growth strengthened. However, we see a completely different macro backdrop,as well as Fed policy,as confounding that conclusion. First,and most obviously, the Fed kept tightening policy in 2018,encouraged by the late- cycle fiscal stimulus (see Exhibit 5). In 2021 and 2022certainly,and perhaps beyond that, fiscal stimulus alone will not cause tighter monetary policy. Inflation would have to be running above 2% for some time,given the Fed's new policy framework, before fiscal policy would have a 2018-style impact on the Fed (see The Fed's New Framework: This Time Is Different). As a result of the Fed's new framework, we think more fiscal stimulus today would have a different impact on real yields and breakeven inflation rates than in 2018. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) pushed breakevens higher initially, but tighter Fed policy took the wind out of their sails (see Exhibit 6). At the same time, tighter Fed policy helped real rates trend toward decade-longhighs,encouraging USD strength. Fiscal stimulus today would not only move breakeven inflation rates higher, but continued easy Fed policy would sustain the trend,at leastuntil realized inflation sustained levels above 2%. This would,at a minimum,keep a lid on real rates, which are nearly 200bp lower than in 2018 already. At a maximum, this could place much more downward pressure on real rates,and send the USD ever lower.
In the euro area, we suggest staying long 10y BTPs vs. short 10y Bunds, long 10y Netherlands vs. short 10y Bunds,and short 30y Gilts vs. long 30y Bunds. In Japan, we suggest exiting JGB 7s30s steepeners and long positions in 10y AUD- denominated JGB ASW. We shift from JGB 5s20s flattener to long 20y JGB vs paid positions in the 2y swap. We also enter long 10y USD-denominated JGB ASW. In New Zealand, we continue to suggest NZD 10y swap spread tighteners, long September 2040 NZGB IIB,and 2s10s NZGB flatteners. In Australia, we continue to suggest long positions in the April 2024 ACGB with a limit order to buy the April 2023 ACGB at 30bp. In Canada, we suggest exiting CAGB 2s10s steepeners, but we continue to suggest 10y swap spread wideners. In foreign exchange markets, we maintain a structural bearish skew to our outlook for the USD, though we remain tactically neutral. In Europe, our medium-term view remains USD bearish, but we recommend staying neutral EUR/USD. We continue to hold 1.0760 EUR/CHF puts (with mid-Jan 2021 expiry). We expect GBP/USD to trade sideways between now and end-October, but expect it to be volatile. We no longer suggest long GBP/SEK.
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