2020-11-17 2 ENGLISH REPORTS
The competitive pressures from shale may also feed into global gas markets via liquefed natural gas (LNG) exports. LNG provided 60 percent of interregional gas trade in 2014, and the IEA expects LNG volumes to increase by 50 percent by 2020 (IEA 2015a). This boom has been driven by high gas prices outside the United States, but the start of LNG exports linked to US gas prices in 2016 exposes international markets to the competitive pressures of US shale gas. Even when US gas prices are not used as a benchmark for global LNG trade, the growth in LNG means that regional gas markets are likely to become more competitive in the future because LNG can connect them all. Moreover, cost reduction and higher fexibility thanks to foating offshore gas terminals could further disrupt the energy sector. Nonetheless, with the current production-to-consumption ratio.Shale oil is expected to provide most of the new oil supply in the coming decades.
Figure 3.6 shows the expected sources of oil supply to 2050, based on an analysis of Rystad’s Ucube database. Current sources will continue providing 60 percent of total supply in 2025, whereas conventional sources currently under development will supply only 10 percent. Shale oil production in the United States has already surpassed that in Saudi Arabia or the Russian Federation, and new developments, largely from shale, may provide 30 percent of oil supply in 2025. Uncertain demand and competitive supply pressures are likely to make investors much more selective when developing new resources with large capital needs, long lead times, and high break-even prices. The resilience of US shale oil producers to the oil price shock of 2014 proved that supply-side effciency through technology progress and management changes can be very responsive to prices, even in a relatively short time. Several analysts agree that the oil reserves that are probably most exposed to competitive pressure are oil felds in the Arctic, tar sands in Canada, and some not-yet-developed deepwater and ultra-deepwater reserves (fgure 3.7). In 2017, for example, Shell decided to divest its Canadian oil sand interests, which is one of the highest-cost sources of crude oil.
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