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【英文】德银报告:中国房地产重新评估平衡增长的开发商潜力(91页)

英文研究报告 2020年11月23日 07:17 1 管理员

China's property sector has always been heavily regulated by central and local  government policies, which were previously used as countercyclical tools to  stabilize local level economic performance. During 2005-16, cycles in China's  property market occurred roughly once every three years, and resulted in big  swings in the valuations of developers. Nevertheless, the housing market has  become less volatile since late 2016, with property prices and sales largely moving  sideways in 2017-19. The main reason for this was a fundamental shift in the  government's policy stance, aiming to maintain housing market stability. The main  purpose of housing is purely accommodation, not investment. The change in policy  landscape reshapes the risks and returns of the homebuilding industry. Less market risk: Nationwide boom-bust property cycle disappears Since 2017, the central government has delegated more property policy decisions  to local governments. 

Local governments have the discretion to implement and  adjust local level policies, including home purchase restrictions, favorable policies  for talent migrants, etc. The policies aim to achieve housing price stability over the  medium/long term. As a result, property cycles have become less synchronized  across cities. The correlation of property prices across 70 cities fell from 0.81 before  2017 to around 0.4 subsequently. While there are housing cycles at a provincial level, most developers have already  expanded geographically or are in the process of regional expansion. This  geographical diversification is a key underlying reason for developers' more stable  sales performance, and is a factor that rating agencies consider when assigning  ratings to the companies.

【英文】德银报告:中国房地产重新评估平衡增长的开发商潜力(91页)

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资源名称:【英文】德银报告:中国房地产重新评估平衡增长的开发商潜力(91页)


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