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【英文】WTO全球贸易监测报告:受疫情影响G20贸易限制放缓(153页)

英文研究报告 2020年12月10日 06:45 1 管理员

Prices for primary commodities other than metals fell in the second quarter of 2020  (April-June), with the price of fuels declining most, around 50% year-on-year (Chart 2.2). Food  prices were down 3% over the same period, while prices for agricultural raw materials dropped 13%.  In contrast, prices for metals rose 6% in Q2. As countries began to reopen their economies after  lockdowns, the price of fuel started to rise, as travel restrictions were relaxed and demand for oil  gradually picked up. Strong price increases were recorded between May and August 2020 for food  (5%), agricultural raw materials (5%), metals (19%) and fuels (40%). 2.12. Nominal effective exchange rates fluctuated in the first half of 2020, as the COVID-19 virus  spread worldwide (Chart 2.3). The US dollar and the Japanese yen appreciated by 4.4% and 4.5%,  respectively, against a broad basket of currencies, while the Chinese renminbi declined by 1.1%.  The British pound maintained its value, with a rise of just 0.3% over the same period. The euro also  recorded a modest 1.0% appreciation from January to June 2020.  2.13. The US dollar appreciated in the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting the  currency’s traditional safe haven role, with a rise of 7.1% in nominal effective terms between January  and April 2020. However, as the global economy gradually reopened, it declined by 5% between  April and August 2020.As damaging as COVID-19 was for merchandise trade, its impact on trade in services was  even greater. 

This negative influence is illustrated by Chart 2.8, which shows commercial services  trade by sector through Q2, and Chart 2.9, which shows quarterly services exports and imports of  major traders.  2.21. The US dollar value of world commercial services trade was down 30% year-on-year in the  second quarter (Chart 2.8), while the value of merchandise trade was only down 21%. Lockdowns and travel restrictions were particularly devastating for the tourism industry, as travellers'  expenditures dropped 81% and transport services fell 31% in Q2. Together, these two categories  make up 43% of commercial services trade worldwide.  2.22. The category of other commercial services, which encompasses several sectors including  financial services, was relatively less affected by the pandemic, with a decline of 9%. Within this  category, many activities that require physical proximity, including movie production and live  performances, were either prohibited or severely restricted due to health concerns. On the other  hand, financial services were only marginally affected since these are more easily provided remotely. 2.23. The pandemic boosted demand for certain types of services, particularly ICT services, which  registered an uptick of 0.1% in exports in Q2. Within ICT services, exports of computer services  recorded a 3.6% year-on-year increase. These services have been instrumental in enabling working  from home, without which, the economic impact of COVID-19 would have been considerably worse.

【英文】WTO全球贸易监测报告:受疫情影响G20贸易限制放缓(153页)

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