The second type of operation that is relevant to an East China Sea continge...
2021-01-06 2 ENGLISH REPORTS
We present our base case forecasts for global EV sales and penetration, updated based on our latest EV battery teardown, in the table below. After comparing key battery cells/packs from leading suppliers, industry cost reduction was a positive surprise, with Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) achieving cost leadership. In line with this finding, we now expect new energy vehicle (NEV) and ICE cost parity in 2024.
The EV race is a valuable opportunity for Chinese OEMs to disrupt the competitive landscape in the auto sector, where Chinese carmakers struggle in low-end markets with pressured margins, but global OEMs have seized the lion’s share of China’s premium auto market. In the following sections, we screen key building blocks we think are contributing to the promising growth prospects for the Chinese EV sector, and support our positive forecasts in the sector.
To determine which of the above scenarios might be more likely, we evaluate Chinese, US, European, Japanese and Korean EV markets using a 20-item scorecard measuring the technology and evolving EV development and adoption environment in each region. While the US has the most comprehensive advantages in terms of technological advancement, we believe China is close behind, while also having favourable overall policies, infrastructure, and social attitudes towards EV, creating a positive environment for EV development. China outperforms other markets on an aggregate level on our scorecard. We expect China to make further progress in technology, reducing costs and pushing EV penetration.
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