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【英文】世界银行报告:2021全球经济前景(234页)

英文研究报告 2021年01月18日 07:19 1 管理员

As a result of weak demand and subdued energy  prices, EMDE inflation has fallen below central  bank targets, on average, since May (figures  1.21.A and 1.21.B). Nevertheless, the fall in  inflation in EMDEs has been less broad based  than in advanced economies, reflecting the effects  of sharp currency depreciations as well as rising  domestic food prices in some countries  (Ebrahimy, Igan, and Martinez Peria 2020).  Whereas underlying inflationary pressures in most  EMDEs are likely to remain subdued amid  persistently soft demand, negative output gaps  following the collapse in activity may not be as  sizable as currently envisioned due to the  pandemic’s damage to potential growth. 

This  could eventually fuel a pickup in inflation.  Central bank policy rates have mostly remained  stable at very accommodative levels (figure  1.21.C). The prospect of generally contained  inflationary pressures, along with recent changes  to the monetary policy framework of the U.S.  Federal Reserve that is likely to keep U.S. policy  rates low for an extended period, may enable a  number of EMDE central banks to maintain their  accommodative policy stances during the recovery  (Arteta et al. 2015; Kose, Nagle et al. 2020).  Lower borrowing costs could also help lessen the  financing burden on EMDEs with high debt loads  and associated financial risks. These benefits may,  however, be elusive for those EMDEs facing  lingering vulnerabilities, such as large external  imbalances or dwindling reserve buffers.  

【英文】世界银行报告:2021全球经济前景(234页)

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