【英文】美国战略与预算评估中心报告：与中国全球化军事竞争的盟军战略（122页）

英文研究报告 2021年03月18日 07:10 1 管理员

China’s military is going global. In the coming decade, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could be well-positioned to influence events and conduct a wide range of missions, including limited warfighting, beyond the Western Pacific. The United States and its allies and partners, who have enjoyed largely unobstructed access to the world’s oceans for the last three decades, will need to adjust to new military realities as the PLA makes its presence felt in faraway theaters. Washington and allied capitals should anticipate a future when a globalized PLA renders the operational environment far less permissive than they have enjoyed in the past. A decade hence, a globally present PLA will require the United States and its allies to revise assumptions about deterrence, reassurance, and warfighting across different regional theaters.

The allied militaries will need to revisit their force structures, postures, day-to-day peacetime operations, and wartime planning as the forward presence of capable Chinese forces around the world becomes a fact of life. Given the velocity of the PLA’s global ascent, it behooves allied policymakers to think productively about counterstrategies based on a sound assessment of Chinese power, including its strengths and weaknesses. This study argues that an understanding of China’s weaknesses as they relate to its global ambitions is required to formulate an effective allied response. These weaknesses offer insights into the costs that Chinese leaders will have to pay to go global. Importantly, some weaknesses are severe and susceptible to external pressure. In other words, the United States and its close allies may enjoy agency over certain Chinese weaknesses, furnishing them leverage that, if exercised, could yield strategic dividends.