【英文】HSBC报告：中国远程医疗：到2030年，市场规模将达到1万亿元人民币（59页）

Investors are very excited about the prospects of consumers in China switching to buying their  medicinal drugs online instead of at hospitals or pharmacies, which is currently the norm. This  change is also part of the four global disruptive technological themes – digital health, connectivity,  automation, and experiential – outlined in The Edge of Disruption, 22 November 2020. Like all  things e-commerce, it’s gaining traction with consumers. The problem is the data isn’t readily  available and it’s certainly not standardised. Our report seeks to fix this by sizing up the  addressable market for telemedicine platforms, figuring out how much of the market can move  online over the next decade, and looking closely at chronic disease patients, given that this is  the largest area for the prescription drug market. Along the way we interview medical  practitioners and look at a hypothetical bill of a Type 2 diabetic patient to see how that could  change.

In 2019, online pharmacy sales were RMB125bn versus nationwide pharmaceutical sales of  RMB2.3trn, implying e-commerce sales have only penetrated 5% of the market. That leaves plenty  of room for growth. We estimate the online pharmacy market to reach RMB1trn in 2030e, an almost  10-fold increase, fuelled by (1) growing demand for medicines amid an ageing population, high  levels of obesity, a high percentage of smokers, and a lack of exercise, all of which will boost the  number of chronic disease patients in China, and (2) as consumers switch to buying medicines online given cheaper prices in some cases and the convenience that comes with complementary  health management and medical services provided by telemedicine platforms.