【英文】摩根士丹利报告：亚太地区半导体行业（68页）

We believe the 5G cycle will be one of the most important themes  within the semi space over the next five years. 5G offers faster wireless data transmission, enabling new features like autonomous cars  or AR/VR on smartphones. There are multiple ways to play the 5G  upgrade cycle, mainly in two categories – infrastructure and smart phones.  In infrastructure, Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) are the  key beneficiary given the increasing number of base stations for 5G  infrastructure. This is positive for companies like Xilinx (covered by  Joseph Moore). For 5G smartphones, RF and SoC are the key components that need to be upgraded. 

This is positive for companies like  Mediatek (smartphone SoC).  Wi-Fi is the mid-range wireless communication technology – we  expect the Wi-Fi SoC market to nearly double by 2024 We expect the penetration of Wi-Fi 6 in key end devices (smart phones, notebooks, routers, and smart homes) to increase to more  than 80% by 2024. The key component that needs to be upgraded  is the Wi-Fi SoC. Wi-Fi 5 SoC pricing is currently close to US$2/unit,  and the Wi-Fi 6 SoC ASP is above US$4/unit and even as high as  US$8/unit. 

We expect the Wi-Fi 6 SoC ASP will come down over time  but still be more than double Wi-Fi 5 by 2024, thanks to fast adoption  within end devices.Investors in general are more familiar with 5G and Wi-Fi than shortrange communication technologies. Some investors even think  short-range technologies will be replaced by 5G and Wi-Fi. In contrast, we believe short-range communication technology will complement rather than replace 5G and Wi-Fi.