【英文】德国外交关系理事会报告：美国大战略的逻辑（39页）

In short, the construction of the three scenarios presented here rests on the assumption that the international system is a major driver of US foreign policy and, even more so,  strategy. It affects not only the distribution of power between  states, but also their ability to successfully pursue their national interests. The attempt to safeguard these interests  informs a state’s grand strategy, that is, the relationship between foreign policy objectives and the means required to  pursue them. The extent to which interests can be pursued  is, hence, also affected by the availability of resources and domestic political support. Domestic political support, in turn, is  strongly shaped by domestic political institutions, especially  the institutional balance of political power between the executive and Congress. Domestic politics and resource availability do not determine fundamental strategic interests. Rather,  they affect the extent to which these can be successfully pursued by the executive. 

As will be elaborated, our three scenarios differ in large part with respect to the extent to which  resource availability and domestic politics limit or undermine  the executive’s ability to pursue the strategic interests that  are strongly influenced by the international system.US strategic interests have been relatively constant for at  least the past 70 years and arguably for much longer. The  United States seeks to maintain primacy in the Western  Hemisphere and prevent the emergence of a hegemonic  power on both the eastern and western end of the Eurasian  landmass. Whenever a state threatened to undo the balance  of power in Europe or Asia, the United States ended up going to war – as exemplified by the First World War, Second  World War, and Cold War.16 The establishment of a balance  of power in both Europe (based on collective security) and  East Asia (based on a hub-and-spokes model) as well as the  creation of a multilateral economic order after the Second  World War helped the United States realize its core strategic security and economic interests.