【英文】国际战略研究中心报告：加强美国-菲律宾和美国-泰国的伙伴关系（27页）

Given China’s clear strategic intent, the focus in the NDS on strengthening alliances is well placed but  left unstated is an uncomfortable truth: U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacifc vary dramatically in terms  of reliability, capability, and clarity of strategic rationale. U.S. alliances with Japan and Australia have  never been stronger, as these partners develop new defense capabilities, build interoperability with the  United States, and increasingly work together as a networked security architecture. Te U.S.-Republic  of Korea alliance is on somewhat shakier political footing, but the alliance remains resilient, deeply  institutionalized, and well managed.Te strategic drift in these two alliances demands focused dialogue between U.S. experts and  practitioners on one side and Philippine and Tai counterparts on the other to shore up the strategic  foundations of the alliances, identify ways to strengthen the mutual benefts of cooperation, and  examine the implications of the emergence of great power competition with China. 

Furthermore,  defense policymakers and warfghters need to better understand Philippine and Tai strategic  assessments and threat perceptions to inform assumptions about the role the alliances would play in  the event of confict with China.  With this goal in mind, CSIS convened a series of of-the-record virtual workshops in early 2021 with  U.S., Philippine, and Tai experts and practitioners. Te goal was to generate timely, credible, and  actionable insights into the current and future state of the alliances. Te discussions also highlighted  the political constraints on each relationship and the signifcant diferences between them. CSIS  closed out its series of workshops on the alliances with a virtual U.S.-Philippines tabletop exercise.  Tis involved a complex near-future crisis in the South China Sea in which China moved quickly to  change the status quo through gray zone coercion while exploiting seams within the U.S.-Philippines  alliance. Te exercise highlighted how badly the deck is currently stacked against the allies in any  efort to rapidly respond to a gray zone challenge by China backed by naval force. Te results were  largely predictable, but the process of reaching them was highly instructive.