【英文】2021年中美贸易战对南亚经济的影响（280页）

The chapter is organised as follows. Section 2 outlines the position of China  and the USA in the global trade scenario. This section also analyses the impact  of the trade war on other countries. Section 3 describes Chinese emergence as  the global economy and a leader in the global production network. Section 4  explores China’s growing trade surplus with the USA while the next section comments on the implications of US trade policy for China and other affected economies. Section 6 summarises the opportunities in the global value chain for the  emerging economies. The fnal views of repositioning and convergence are noted  as a concluding refection. 2 US–China and the share of global trade With growth rates above the average trend during the past two decades and the  largest trade surplus with the US, China is the primary target of the trade war  unleashed by the US. 

Steep tariffs are the frst weapon in bilateral tensions damaging global economic integration tied to ever more intense technology competition. This move by the US is alarming. In the worst-case scenario, these conficts  may dissociate both economies, cause lasting global recession, and usher in new  geopolitical confrontation. The Trump administration, in particular, relies on  an emergency status quo, new campaign fnance, and ‘big money’, which poses  signifcant risks not only to US–China relations but also to internal democratic  norms and the existing international order. As a consequence, US–China trade  has shown a precipitously downward trend. Estimates based on the quarterly  growth of exports to China and imports from China to the US have noted a steep  decline over the years, as noted in Figure 2.1.