2023-05-30 14 英文报告下载
Perhaps unsurprisingly, chief economists see the most buoyant economic activity among the economies of Asia. For China, in particular, there is near unanimity that growth will be moderate or better this year, a sharp improvement from January when this was the expectation of only half of respondents. China’s borders have been reopening following the decision in late 2022 to unwind the country’s stringent zero-COVID policies. This change has transformed the growth outlook not just for China but for its regional neighbours too.
Accordingly, 93% of chief economists expect at least moderate growth in East Asia and Pacifific, with 39% expecting strong or very strong growth. The outlook for South Asia is broadly similar, with 92% expecting at least moderate growth, and 36% expecting strong or very strong growth. While both of these regions are likely to benefifit from both rebounding activity in China and expected changes in global supply chains (a topic discussed in section 3), it is important to note that tighter international fifinancial conditions are already placing signifificant strain on a number of regional economies, such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Lao PDR and Mongolia.