2023-05-31 23 英文报告下载
Given the near absence of data-driven research on this topic—in Chinese language sources especially—by observers in the United States and Europe, and its potential import for competing nations, this paper also introduces an open-source pilot project, with extant examples, to monitor China’s progress from narrow to broadly capable AI, using this study’s data as a foundation. It concludes with a proposal to track China’s AI growth as a target of concern and as a starting point for a science and technology (S&T) monitoring watchboard, which the United States currently lacks. A study of China’s technology development inevitably generates questions about state versus private management, foreign sources of inspiration, and impact on Chinese military power.4 The authors address these topics in other studies to which the reader is referred.
The short answers are: state involvement in Chinese AI is ubiquitous;5 virtually all Chinese technology programs beneft from foreign knowhow;6 and Chinese planners are aware of AI’s warfghting role.7 Research on next-generation AI with broad applications—unlike today’s AI which is mostly limited to niche areas—leads to speculation that the outcome will be so-called “artifcial general intelligence” (AGI), or by some accounts “artifcial superintelligence,” (ASI)—i.e., AI that matches or exceeds the intelligent behavior of humans in many or most respects. This paper does not discount that possibility nor treat it as especially probable, but proposes that advances in AI may be unpredictable or unrecognizable, taking forms that diverge from what laypersons regard as “intelligence” based on human experiences. While not necessarily the fabled holy grail of human-level machine intelligence, the outcome of China’s advanced AI research will be as portentous.