2023-10-23 13 英文报告下载
World trade and output slowed abruptly in the fourth quarter of 2022 as the effects of tighter monetary policy were felt in the United States, the European Union and elsewhere, but falling energy prices and the end of Chinese pandemic restrictions raised hopes of a quick rebound. So far, these hopes have not materialized, as strained property markets have prevented a stronger recovery from taking root in China, and as infation has remained sticky in the United States and the EU.
Together with the after-effects of the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, these developments have cast a shadow over the outlook for trade in 2023 and 2024. The WTO now expects world merchandise trade volume growth of 0.8% in 2023 – down from 1.7% in our April forecast – accompanied by real GDP growth of 2.6% at market exchange rates (see Chart 1). Trade growth should then pick up to 3.3% in 2024 – nearly unchanged from the previous 3.2% estimate in April – with stable GDP growth of 2.5%. Trade is expected to grow more slowly than GDP this year but faster next year; such swings are not unusual given the relatively large share of business-cycle sensitive investment and durable goods in trade compared to GDP.