【英文】世界银行报告：2020全球经济展望（333页）

Sources of productivity growth. Labor productivity  growth can be decomposed into its sources: Factor  accumulation (human or physical capital) and advances in  the efficiency of factor use (total factor productivity, or  TFP). Two-thirds of the post-crisis slowdown in  productivity growth in ECA is estimated to have been due  to slowing capital accumulation—partly reflecting weak  investment amid lower foreign direct investment (FDI)  inflows and declining commodity prices—and one-third  to slowing TFP growth, compared with about equal  contributions of these sources in the average EMDE.  In Russia and Central Europe, particularly Bulgaria and  Romania, weakening capital services deepening accounted  for most (three-quarters) of the slowdown in productivity  growth in the post-crisis period. In Russia, international  sanctions, combined with the 2014-16 oil price plunge,  deterred investment, which was further dampened by the  weak business environment (Russell 2018). Although EU  structural funds have buoyed overall investment in Central  Europe, they have not fully offset weakness in machinery  and equipment investment, which has been due partly to  reduced commercial credit supply (Gradzewicz et al. 2018;  Levenko, Oja, and Staehr 2019). 

In contrast, reduced TFP growth has been the main source  (accounting for three-quarters) of the productivity growth  slowdown in Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans, and  the South Caucasus. This has partly reflected pockets of  conflict and violence (Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine).  However, private and public investment has also been  weak in the post-crisis period, contributing to reduced  TFP growth. As a result of weak investment, these  subregions face large infrastructure gaps, particularly in  transport and telecommunications networks, which limits  the capacity to promote regional integration and, for  energy exporters, diversification (IMF 2014). Obstacles to  private sector development also constrain TFP in these  subregions, with certain economies in the Western Balkans  facing notable challenges with corporate over-indebtedness  and market concentration (EBRD 2018a). In both Turkey  and Central Asia, the sources of the productivity  deceleration were broad-based, reflecting a slowdown in  physical capital deepening and human capital  improvements, as well as in TFP growth, particularly in  Kazakhstan.

In Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the  Western Balkans, reform momentum has also slowed, with  many of these economies falling short of completing the  transition to competitive and inclusive markets.  Sources of regional productivity growth  Post-crisis slowdown across all sectors. Pre-crisis  productivity growth in ECA was mostly driven by shifts of  resources from agriculture and industry to higherproductivity services sectors, partly as a result of continued  reforms to address resource misallocation inherited from  central planning (World Bank 2008). The post-crisis  period, however, was marked by weakness of growth across  all sectors as a slowdown in manufacturing, exacerbated by  dwindling global trade growth and a collapse in  commodity prices, spilled over to services (Figure 2.2.1.3;  Orlic, Hashi, and Hisarciklilar 2018). In contrast to the  EMDE average, the contribution of services to  productivity growth in 2013-15 was negative in ECA,  likely reflecting, in part, spillovers from the Euro Area debt  crisis and the continued migration of skilled labor to  Western Europe.