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【英文】世界银行报告:全球经济中期前景展望(76页)

英文研究报告 2020-06-15 3 管理员

Global spillovers to EMDEs. These adverse  demand and supply shocks have resulted in crossborder spillovers to EMDEs through multiple  channels—real channels, including disruptions in  global trade, supply chains, travel, and tourism;  and financial channels, including sharp declines in remittance flows and large capital outflows amid a  flight to safety in March. Commodity prices have  been depressed by the sharp decline in demand  and, with oil the most affected. These cross-border  spillovers have been amplified by plunging  confidence and rising uncertainty.  Initial impact: Economic  activity, financial and  commodity markets  Consistent with the gravity of the shocks and  spillovers discussed above, recent data point to  substantial disruptions in global activity and trade, a sharp tightening of financial conditions, and a  severe decline in commodity prices (Chapter 1).

With international travel restricted and internal  travel discouraged in most countries, global  tourism and travel have been severely curtailed. So  far this year, tourist arrivals declined by nearly 100 percent among reporting countries. Globally, the  number of commercial flights is down about 70  percent since the beginning of the year.  Disruptions to production and international  transport have increased the risk that critical  inputs will be unavailable, potentially leading to  cascading production shortfalls in global value  chains. Manufacturers’ stocks of purchases have  fallen, while suppliers’ delivery times have  lengthened. Industries reliant on “just-in-time”  inputs from global value chains and lean  inventories have been particularly affected. In the  automobile sector, a collapse in demand,  combined with production and delivery  challenges, has led to a precipitous plunge in sales  worldwide.  Global financial conditions  Global equity markets fell sharply as the pandemic  spread across the world. Within a week of  reaching an all-time high in mid-February, the  S&P 500 index in the United States experienced  its fastest decline since October 1987, and stock  markets in other major economies experienced  declines of similar magnitude. The VIX volatility  index more than quadrupled in March before  settling at about double its February value in midMay.  

【英文】世界银行报告:全球经济中期前景展望(76页)

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