【英文】瑞信报告：全球客机大清洗（48页）

The International Air Transport Association  quickly recognized the impact in its March  forecast, though it fine tuned it lower in April.  IATA sees global traffic down 48% for all of  2020. IATA does not foresee total RPKs recovering to 2019 levels until 2023, with domestic around  late 2021, and international lagging until nearly 2024.

It’s clear that four-engine WBs are essentially finished (at least for pax), as well as older aircraft  twins like 757s and old 767s and A330s. Question is how many MRO-rich CEOs and NGs are permanently displaced? Their aftermarket  TAM could be significantly reduced, and their engines and components a sizable source of USM.

We’ve gone from ~10% of the fleet in storage to 62% in a few short months. With global load  factors around 30%, traffic must double before meaningful aircraft storage recovery begins. Aircraft highlighted in red are most at risk for retirement followed by aircraft highlighted in  orange, yellow, and green.