【英文】J.P. 摩根报告：年中新兴市场展望与策略：下半年疫情负面影响将持续（94页）

The improving BoP dynamic has helped EM FX on  several fronts, though this may not last to year end. EM  FX sold off significantly in 1Q20 due to the large EM  portfolio outflows over the period, coupled with the  deterioration in EM terms of trade. The improvement in  external balances in 2Q20, coupled with the cessation of EM  portfolio outflows in April and May – both of which reported  small inflows (Exhibit 15) – is giving EM BoP an all-round  boost helping to support EM FX. This BoP “sweet spot” for  EM can continue in the short run as these drivers are still playing out. However, risks of a reversal in these dynamics  increase further into 2H20 as the effect of China's V-shaped  recovery begins to diminish, weighing on China’s import  demand from EM and on the EM-DM growth differential  more broadly (a driver of EM capital flows). There is also a  higher risk that a second COVID-19 wave again weighs on  EM portfolio flows.

A sustained bounce in risk appetite can attract near-term  EM portfolio inflows, but history shows that a full  recovery can take many months. March saw unprecedented  portfolio outflows from EM debt and equity markets, with the  pace (but not level) of EM retail bond outflows exceeding the  GFC. Since then, there has been a tepid recovery in EM  portfolio flows, while the recent bounce in risk appetite is  spurring inflows. Previous bouts of large EM outflows  (Exhibit 16, Exhibit 17) show that periods of inflows are  common after sharp outflows, but a full retracement of  portfolio flows can take a much longer period. For EM retail  bond funds, it took over a year from the start of the GFC to  reverse redemptions. From the start of the so-called taper  tantrum it took 4 years to fully offset outflows. Outflows in  the current episode are not as severe as previous crises (peak  outflow of 9% of AUM to-date), but history shows that the  recovery period is typically much longer than the outflows  period. In our view, there are unlikely to be EM-dedicated  bond fund inflows overall in 2H20 (see EM Technicals for further detail).