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【英文】彼得森经济研究所报告:东亚与美国脱钩:贸易战,COVID-19和东亚的新贸易联盟(35页)

英文研究报告 2020-07-02 3 管理员

In later sections of the paper we show that the agreements will matter  even more for deeper, structural changes, including shifts in trade patterns and  global supply chains. They will also shape East Asia’s geopolitics by reorienting  its economy toward regional partners. These results emerge from simulations  of a large computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy,  like one that we developed and applied in previous studies.4 The model’s  methodology is summarized in appendix A. The analysis is repeated for two contrasting assumptions about the global  trade environment. The first anticipates that trade barriers will return to preTrump levels within the next decade. 

The second envisions a sustained trade war  and much more limited trans-Pacific relations. This latter scenario anticipates  policies that continue to weaken global and US-Chinese economic ties through  trade restrictions, controls on foreign investment, and technological nationalism.  The disruption caused by COVID-19 is amplifying these trends by sowing distrust  and undermining confidence in international supply chains. For example, the  McKinsey consultancy argues that “distance” will become much more important  because of the high perceived risks of cooperation (Sneader and Singhal 2020).

【英文】彼得森经济研究所报告:东亚与美国脱钩:贸易战,COVID-19和东亚的新贸易联盟(35页)

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资源名称:【英文】彼得森经济研究所报告:东亚与美国脱钩:贸易战,COVID-19和东亚的新贸易联盟(35页)


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