【英文】摩根士丹利报告：消费者与中国宅经济报告（48页）

Although we see short-term pressure from Covid-19, growth in disposable income remains a long-term driver, as discussed in our Blue  Paper (Why we are bullish on China (Feb 13, 2017)), for consumption  moving from basic needs (physical goods) to psychological needs  and self-fulfillment needs (i.e., services and experience-related consumption). Reshored consumption would be mostly driven by highincome consumers – the primary group of people for overseas  education and global travel, so that the potential incremental expenditure in the domestic market would be more focused on life-qualityupgrading consumption. In our base case, we estimate a US$100bn  reshoring amount from overseas expenses, with respective lower  and upper bounds at US$70bn and US$130bn. Considering China's  20% savings rate, the allocation of the remaining potential spending  power of US$100bn could be spread out among various categories,  such as luxury, beauty, health and wellness, sportswear, high-end  auto, and service-related and inspirational consumption ( Exhibit 6 )  – amounting to a combined market size of roughly US$1trn.

Defying market concerns about supply chains moving out of China  amid continued US-China trade tensions, more global MNCs, we  expect, are likely to adopt an "in China, for China" strategy – in view  of: (1) China's massive domestic consumption market, and (2) policymakers' ongoing efforts to accelerate the country's economic  opening up. Overseas consumption reshoring would be an additional  boost to any such trend. In particular, we see more potential for  MNCs in the luxury, beauty, fashion, and sportswear segments to  adjust their businesses in China (including pricing and supply chain  arrangements), given their high revenue exposure to China. Besides  foreign MNCs, Chinese companies that have been export-oriented  could also shift to growing their domestic businesses in view of the  growing "stay-home" economy.