【英文】摩根士丹利报告：房地产行业-亚洲地产业：在家办公是一个新的挑战（65页）

Rental outlook without factoring in WFH: Based on our analysis, office demand is directly and strongly correlated to GDP in every  region. With 1H20 largely behind, the key is how much lower/higher  will 2022 GDP be. This, along with supply growth (over the next  three years) versus normal annual increase, drives our rental outlook. The mitigating factors have been robust trading activities and  listing of Chinese companies in Hong Kong (as they move out of the  US). Limited new supply in Hong Kong helps too.  (B) We identify five key drivers of WFH decisions:  1. What percentage of overall office space is occupied by financial, professional, and TMT workers, which could easily work  from home if need be?  2. How many organizations have WFH capability or business  continuity planning (BCP) in place?  3. Does the country's digital infrastructure allow for seamless  WFH?  4. Does the size of residential apartments and age of employees  (family commitments) allow for effective WFH? 5. What other measures are in place to promote flexible work,  such as flexible office, flexible hours, flexible days? 

Quantifying the WFH impact: Base case: Around 40% of all employers (with IT infrastructure and  knowledge workers) are able to return 10-15% of their space. This  results in a decline in office demand of 4-6% initially. However, part  of this is offset by social distancing requirements, driving desk space  per person to rise (by 10-15% according to Cushman), although we  think employers will keep that flattish at best. As shown in Exhibit  11 , we expect the largest rental declines to be in Hong Kong (-10%)  and Tokyo (-9%).  It is difficult to pinpoint exactly how much demand has declined as a  result of WFH, so we have tried to build bull and bear case scenarios  for cities in Asia. In our bull case, we assume no impact from WFH and  a strong V-shaped recovery with positive GDP growth. The bear case  assumption is significant demand decline owing to WFH, with no help  from social distancing and muted GDP growth. We see that  Singapore and Hong Kong face the worst bear case scenarios of a  30% decline in rental from here. They are dependent on global cyclicality and have had historically higher volatility in rental income.