【英文】摩根士丹利报告：中美紧张局势升级投资指南（26页）

英文研究报告 2020-08-26 6 管理员

Which Chinesecompanies from all industries/sectors havethe most US/overseas revenueexposure? This screening caters to an extreme scenario in which US regulatory actions were to expand to restrict purchase/usage of any products/services made in/originated from China. Eleven out of the top 20 names actually overlap with the Tech company list above,highlighting that the Technology sector is the most exposed to US/China tension escalation risks. Asidefrom the Tech sector, Consumer Durables & Apparel and Pharma each claim 3 companies in thelist, markingtheir relatively high sensitivityto thesituation as well.

Wecontinueto highlight US/China tension as the biggest near-term uncertaintyto China'sequity market. Weadviseextra caution against top-down regulatoryrisk along with company fundamentals when it comes to stock picking. That said, the overall Chinese equity market impact should be limited given that the market share of Chinese companies in the US in general is still very small,and the aggregate US revenue exposure of the Chinese equity space is extremely limited.For example, the total index weight of the top 20 most US-market exposed Chinese companies is only 1.6% in MSCI China. Total US revenue exposure for the entire MSCI China universe is only 2.4%.

In the long run, we expect regulatory actions of a similar nature to continue given the near-term US election pressure and, more importantly,as the world goes through a structural shift towards a multipolar world, in which the US and China “increasingly compete directly in multiple spheres ranging from technology, security,health policy, financial markets,and corporate governance”. Regional champions are more likely than global winners as regulatory intervention on national security grounds would limit the ability of firms to globalize their business models and raise barriers to entry in home markets.For more details please refer to Another Marker on the Road to a Multipolar World. We also expect Chinese policy makers to accelerate their initiatives to mitigate these external challenges with more emphasis on technology localization,growing the domestic market,and further reforms and market opening-up efforts.