【英文】摩根士坦利报告：全球宏观策略（103页）

英文研究报告 2022年02月21日 08:52 管理员

The past week saw an uptick in news stories covering inflation and also… recession (see Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). We fielded many questions about recession probabilities and what our models suggested for them. The US nonfarm payroll report for January may prevent these concerns from growing further,at least for now. We think its too early to talk about recession when activity data is strong, but especially when many central banks have yet to even begin tightening monetary policy.Financial conditions may be tighter than last year, true, but they are only tighter on the margin. They are far from tight when placed into any historical context. So why haveinvestors been askingabout recession?First, yields curves have been flattening as central banks have turned more hawkish – both in rhetoric and in policy action. As yield curves flatten and eventually invert, models that impute the probability of recession from yield curves start flashing red. Exhibit 3shows the New York Fed's probit model output, which relies on the shape of the Treasury yield curve.

While the Treasury curve is far from inverting, other curves like reds-greens and greens-blues Eurodollar futures curves are almost inverted (Exhibit 4).We don't think investors should worry about yield curve flattening – at leastnot yet. The yield curve simply tells whether Fed policy is in restrictive territory (an inverted curve) or in accommodative territory (a positively sloped curve). And just because policy is restrictive doesn't mean the economy is close to a recession. The intent of restrictive policy is to weigh on demand and economic activity. Whether that puts an economy into recession depends on how quickly the economy is growing. Restrictive policy applied to an economy growing at 4.6% Y/Y in real terms - what our economists envision for the US economy in 2022- is different than restrictive policy applied to an economy growing at 2% Y/Y - the economy that existed pre-pandemic. Second, consumer confidence appears under stress. Consumers neither have enjoyed higher prices for goods nor the constant threats posed by COVID-19. Our model for the US consumer suggests they should be more confident than the indexes indicate.