【英文】国际事务研究院报告：中国人民币国际化与中国数字货币计划（19页）

英文研究报告 2023年05月01日 07:50 管理员

The most evident characteristic of renminbi internationalisation so far is that most renminbi international transactions are trade-related and very few settle fnancial transactions. The share of China’s trade settled in renminbi peaked at 30 per cent in 2015, dropped to 10 per cent with the 2015 crisis and climbed slowly back to 15 per cent immediately before the 2019 Covid pandemic outbreak (Figure 2). In March 2022, in a context of shrinking value of the traded goods the share of trade settled in renminbi jumped to about 20 per cent and went even higher at the beginning of 2023, probably supported by the settlement of energy exports from Russia.

While no data is available on renminbi settlement of trade among countries other than China, this is likely to be negligible. Trade in renminbi, coupled with capital account restrictions, has generated pools of ofshore liquidity.11 To date, ofshore renminbi deposits amount to roughly 1.3 trillion renminbi (little more than 200 billion US dollars), the overwhelming majority of which still resides in Hong Kong (Figure 3). Additional liquidity pools also exist in South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and the UK. Much like renminbi trade, ofshore deposits increased rapidly up to 2015, and dropped as consequence of the 2015 rate crisis. To date, the stock of ofshore currency remains below the 2015 peak.