【英文】WTO报告：全球贸易展望与统计（48页）

World merchandise trade volume is expected to  grow 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 as demand  for traded goods rebounds following a contraction  in 2023. Trade volume was down 1.2% last year  after recording 3.0% expansion in 2022 despite the  outbreak of war in Ukraine. The lingering effects of  high energy prices and infation weighed especially  heavily on demand for trade-intensive manufactured  goods, but this should recover gradually over the  next two years as infationary pressures ease and  as real household incomes improve.  The relatively small 1.2% decline in merchandise  trade in 2023 obscures strong regional variation,  as import demand fell sharply in Europe, declined in  North America, remained fat in Asia, and increased  in major fuel-exporting economies. Weak demand  reduced export volumes in Europe and prevented a  stronger recovery in Asia, while the picture in other  regions was mixed. If the forecast is realized, Asia  will make a bigger contribution to trade volume  growth in 2024 and 2025. As shown in Chart 1, merchandise trade volume  was well above its pre-pandemic level throughout  2023 and was only down slightly in Q4 compared  to the frst quarter of 2022 (-0.6%). The peak in  trade volume in the third quarter of 2022 could  partly refect the sharp increases in commodity  prices that occurred during the year if these  were not fully accounted for in trade statistics of  reporting economies. Outside of this one period,  trade can be seen as plateauing in 2023 rather  than declining.