【英文】WTO报告：全球贸易展望与统计（48页）

英文研究报告 2024年04月23日 08:13 管理员

World merchandise trade volume is expected to grow 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 as demand for traded goods rebounds following a contraction in 2023. Trade volume was down 1.2% last year after recording 3.0% expansion in 2022 despite the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The lingering effects of high energy prices and infation weighed especially heavily on demand for trade-intensive manufactured goods, but this should recover gradually over the next two years as infationary pressures ease and as real household incomes improve. The relatively small 1.2% decline in merchandise trade in 2023 obscures strong regional variation, as import demand fell sharply in Europe, declined in North America, remained fat in Asia, and increased in major fuel-exporting economies. Weak demand reduced export volumes in Europe and prevented a stronger recovery in Asia, while the picture in other regions was mixed. If the forecast is realized, Asia will make a bigger contribution to trade volume growth in 2024 and 2025. As shown in Chart 1, merchandise trade volume was well above its pre-pandemic level throughout 2023 and was only down slightly in Q4 compared to the frst quarter of 2022 (-0.6%). The peak in trade volume in the third quarter of 2022 could partly refect the sharp increases in commodity prices that occurred during the year if these were not fully accounted for in trade statistics of reporting economies. Outside of this one period, trade can be seen as plateauing in 2023 rather than declining.