【英文】联合国报告：2024年年中的世界经济形势与展望（32页）

英文研究报告 2024年07月22日 15:13 管理员

The near-term growth prospects for major economies diverge. The outlook of the United States continues to improve, now being expected to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2024. A strong labour market has continued to deliver jobs and real income growth, while stronger household balance sheets – especially of the higher- and middle income families – support additional consumption. The European Union and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland are expected to register modest improvement this year, after barely growing in 2023. A few economies in the European Union experienced a recession in 2023 – albeit a very shallow one – amid tight financing conditions and the withdrawal of fiscal support. Nevertheless, declining inflation, robust wage growth and projected rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to provide some impetus to regional growth in the near term. China’s growth is projected to moderate to 4.8 per cent in 2024, from 5.2 per cent in 2023. Pent-up consumer demand – released after the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions – has largely dissipated. While enhanced policy support is expected to boost investments in public infrastructure and strategic sectors, the property sector poses a significant downside risk to the Chinese economy.