【英文】渣打银行报告：2024年下半年投资展望（34页）

英文研究报告 2024年07月18日 07:25 管理员

In the US, our equity sector Overweights are focused on the technology and communication services sectors. While we like them for their earnings outlooks and sensitivity to falling bond yields, we also like them for being growth-oriented. This, we believe, fits well with the macro and markets environment we expect for H2 24 as the Fed starts to cut rates to manage a soft landing for the US economy. In Europe, we are Overweight the technology and healthcare sectors. We believe this more barbell-like approach is consistent with the improvement in the growth outlook, while How important are US elections for market? One key event in H2 24 that is firmly on investors’ horizons is the US Presidential election. Since 1972, the S&P500 has, on average, delivered positive returns six months before and after elections, with any volatility limited to the weeks around the election itself. Today, the question is whether the presence of a Fed rate cutting cycle changes this outcome to any degree. Our analysis illustrated in the chart shows that, historically, S&P500 returns were significantly worse than average around elections when the Fed was also cutting rates.