【英文】世界经济论坛报告：首席经济学家展望（32页）

英文研究报告 2024年06月13日 09:27 管理员

The most notable improvement recorded in the latest survey is in the outlook for the US. Chief economists are almost unanimous (97%) in expecting at least moderate growth in 2024, a marked jump in optimism compared to the 59% recorded in January. Moreover, this uptick is driven by a jump in the share of respondents expecting strong or very strong growth this year, from 3% to 45%. The brightening in the outlook is in line with encouraging data releases in the early months of 2024.5 That said, renewed infation concerns, as well as interlocking geopolitical and domestic political factors, may weigh on the outlook in the remainder of 2024. Chief economists foresee consistently buoyant activity in the economies of Asia, with 100% of respondents now expecting moderate or stronger growth in the remainder of 2024. For South Asia, in particular, there was a marked increase in the share of respondents expecting strong or very strong growth this year, up to 70% from 52% in the previous edition. In East Asia and Pacifc, the improvement is less pronounced and is mostly driven by an increase in the share of respondents expecting moderate growth. China remains an exception among the Asian economies, with only 4% of respondents pointing to strong growth for 2024, as weak consumption and property market worries weigh on near-term prospects.