【英文】美联储报告：褐皮书：前景展望更加悲观（56页）

英文研究报告 2024年06月12日 09:40 管理员

The Federal Reserve System conducts a wide array of recurring surveys of businesses, households, and community organizations. A list of statistical releases compiled by the Federal Reserve Board is available here, links to each of the Federal Reserve Banks are available here, and a summary of the System’s community outreach is available here. In addition, Fed Listens events have been held around the country to hear about how monetary policy affects peoples’ daily lives and livelihoods. The System also relies on a variety of advisory councils—whose members are drawn from a wide array of businesses, non-profit organizations, and community groups—to hear diverse perspectives on the economy in carrying out its responsibilities.National economic activity continued to expand from early April to mid-May; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts. Most Districts reported slight or modest growth, while two noted no change in activity. Retail spending was flat to up slightly, reflecting lower discretionary spending and heightened price sensitivity among consumers.

Auto sales were roughly flat, with a few Districts noting that manufacturers were offering incentives to spur sales. Travel and tourism strengthened across much of the country, boosted by increased leisure and business travel, but hospitality contacts were mixed in their outlooks for the summer season. Demand for nonfinancial services rose, and activity in transportation services was mixed, as port and rail activity increased whereas reports of trucking and freight demand varied. Nonprofits and community organizations cited continued solid demand for their services, and manufacturing activity was widely characterized as flat to up, though two Districts cited declines. Tight credit standards and high interest rates continued to constrain lending growth. Housing demand rose modestly, and single-family construction increased, though there were reports of rising rates impacting sales activity. Conditions in the commercial real estate sector softened amid supply concerns, tight credit conditions, and elevated borrowing costs. Energy activity was largely stable, whereas agricultural reports were mixed, as drought conditions eased in some Districts, but farm finances/incomes remained a concern. Overall outlooks grew somewhat more pessimistic amid reports of rising uncertainty and greater downside risks.