【英文】世界经济论坛望报告：首席经济学家展（30页）

英文研究报告 2024年10月17日 08:45 管理员

Geopolitical tensions are another potential source of macroeconomic shocks and were cited repeatedly as a concern by the chief economists. Against a backdrop of heightened superpower tensions between the US and China, geopolitical and geoeconomic risks are increasing, including risks of war.9 The global economy has managed to adapt to numerous geopolitical disruptions, but this is not a cost-free process.10 For example, the latest World Investment Report cites worsening geopolitical tensions as one of the key drivers of a 10% slump in global foreign direct investment last year.11 More recently, shipping costs between East Asia and North Europe more than doubled between April and July 2024 following an intensifcation of attacks on ships in the Red Sea.12 The chief economists’ outlook for the global economy is subject to signifcant regional variation (Figure 3). The strongest results in the latest survey are for parts of Asia. South Asia is a clear stand-out performer, with seven out of 10 chief economists expecting strong or very strong growth in 2024 and 2025. This refects the current buoyant economic activity in India, where the IMF recently revised its forecast for GDP growth this year from 6.8% to 7.0%.13 There are also robust results for Central Asia and East Asia and Pacifc. The overwhelming majority of respondents expect moderate or stronger growth, with a sizeable minority of between one-ffth and one-third expecting strong or very strong growth in the two regions both this year and next year. By contrast, the weak outlook for China continues to make it an outlier among the Asian economies. Almost four in 10 respondents expect weak or very weak growth in China in 2024 and 2025. This extends a protracted run of sluggish results, refecting the country’s continuing struggles, particularly with defationary pressures and widespread dysfunction in the property market.