【英文】联合国报告：2024年世界人口展望结果摘要（69页）

英文研究报告 2024年07月23日 07:14 管理员

The world’s population is expected to continue growing over the coming fifty or sixty years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, returning to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century (figure I.1). While there is some uncertainty around the future size of the world’s population, the estimated likelihood that it will peak within the current century is 80 per cent, with the peak likely to occur sometime between the mid-2060s and 2100 (box I.1). This represents an important change compared to projections produced by the United Nations a decade ago, when the estimated probability that world population growth would end during the twenty-first century was around 30 per cent (Gerland and others, 2014). The size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6 per cent smaller – or about 700 million people fewer – than anticipated a decade ago.