【英文】东亚与太平洋地区经济半年报（151页）

英文研究报告 2024年10月28日 14:16 管理员

The prospect of diminishing spillover benefits from China’s growth heightens the need for EAP countries to seek sources of autonomous growth, especially through deeper domestic reform. New empirical analysis reveals that, in the past, growth in other EAP economies benefited more on average from China’s increasing demand for imports than it was hurt by China’s increasing competition in export markets. China’s growth is estimated to have boosted developing countries’ growth by around 1 percentage point annually during the 1995-2019 period, and by 0.67 percentage points annually during the period 2020-2023 when China’s growth slowed down (figure O3). Two concerns arise. First, if China’s growth slows down further (say, to the projected 4.3 percent in 2025), the benefits for developing countries will decline. A one percentage point slowdown in China’s growth could reduce growth in other developing countries by an estimated 0.14 to 0.21 percentage points. Second, if China’s exports grow faster than its imports, as has continued to be the case (in the first seven months of this year, merchandise exports grew year-on-year by 4 percent and imports by 2.8 percent), then the negative impact of increased competition in international markets may outweigh the positive impact from greater demand.