【英文】IMF报告：2024全球金融稳定报告（128页）

英文研究报告 2024年11月08日 07:38 管理员

Since the April 2024 Global Financial Stability Report, global economic activity has moderated, and inflation has continued to slow. With monetary easing under way among major central banks, financial conditions have remained accommodative, emerging markets have remained resilient, and asset price volatility has stayed relatively low, on net. Near-term financial stability risks, according to the IMF’s one-year-ahead growthat-risk measure, remain contained at around the 40th historical percentile. However, accommodative financial conditions that keep near-term risks at bay also facilitate the buildup of vulnerabilities—such as lofty asset valuations, the global rise in private and government debt (Figure ES.1), and increased use of leverage by nonbank financial institutions—which raises risks to financial stability in the future. These mounting vulnerabilities could amplify adverse shocks, which have become more probable due to elevated economic and geopolitical uncertainty amid ongoing military conflicts and the uncertain future policies of newly elected governments. In particular, the widening disconnect between uncertainty and market volatility (Figure ES.2) increases the chance of sudden surges in volatility and sharp asset repricing, which could be amplified by the vulnerabilities. As shown in Chapter 1, the market turmoil in early August 2024—when stock market volatility spiked in both Japan and United States (Figure ES.3) and global asset prices declined significantly—provided a glimpse of the violent reactions that can ensue when spikes in volatility interact with the use of leverage by financial institutions to create nonlinear market reactions and hasten sell-offs.