【英文】国际货币基金组织报告：《世界经济展望报告》（174页）

英文研究报告 2024年11月11日 07:12 管理员

In sub-Saharan Africa, GDP growth is similarly projected to increase, from an estimated 3.6 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in 2025, as the adverse impacts of prior weather shocks abate and supply constraints gradually ease. Compared with that in April, the regional forecast is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2024 and upward by 0.1 percentage point for 2025. Besides the ongoing conflict that has led to a 26 percent contraction of the South Sudanese economy, the revision reflects slower growth in Nigeria, amid weaker-than-expected activity in the first half of the year. In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is projected to decline from 2.2 percent in 2023 to 2.1 percent in 2024 before rebounding to 2.5 percent in 2025. In Brazil, growth is projected at 3.0 percent in 2024 and 2.2 percent in 2025. This is an upward revision of 0.9 percentage point for 2024, compared with July 2024 World Economic Outlook Update projections, owing to stronger private consumption and investment in the first half of the year from a tight labor market, government transfers, and smaller-than-anticipated disruptions from floods. However, with the still-restrictive monetary policy and the expected cooling of the labor market, growth is expected to moderate in 2025. In Mexico, growth is projected at 1.5 percent in 2024, reflecting weakening domestic demand on the back of monetary policy tightening, before slowing further to 1.3 percent in 2025 on a tighter fiscal stance. Overall, offsetting revisions leave the regional growth forecast broadly unchanged since April.