【英文】麦格理报告：COVID-19与亚洲现状（63页）

行业报告下载 2020年03月11日 07:09 管理员

Sportswear brands and retailers: Both international and domestic brands alike have shared that ~40-50% of stores remain closed, thus impacting offline retail sales performance for brands and retailers. Brands and retailers are scrambling to generate off-store sales while imposing strict cost control. We believe the companies could resume normal growth in 2H20 at the earliest if new confirmed case can be controlled by the end of February. Longer term, we continue to believe a more active lifestyle and increased sports participation could benefit sportswear demand. Sportswear names are likely to be affected by the outbreak as they rely on offline traffic to generate sales. As a result, a build-up of inventory is likely in the near term, which could lead to changes in orderbooks and higher retail discounts.

Home appliances: According to third-party data provider AVC, offline retail sales for white goods are generally down ~70% vs online channels down 40% YoY in last 3-4 weeks. Supply chains are less of a concern at the moment given availability of channel inventory and raw materials. Cost control and shifting offline inventory to online, while ensuring installation workers are available and resuming production remain key tasks. Generally, companies are targeting to get production back online by end-Feb. There could still be price cuts to drive inventory destocking in 2Q20, hence recovery could come in 3Q20. We expect longer term demand for products that improve hygiene to increase while customers continue to shift away from traditional offline stores. We also expect accelerated localised production for overseas markets. We believe none of the home appliance producers will remain unaffected given that most rely on offline traffic to generate sales. In the near term, this will lead to build-up of inventory resulting in changes in orderbooks and higher retail discounts.

Textiles/footwear/furniture OEM: While disruption from delay of work resumption on overseas production facilities has been minimal so far, upstream resumption delay has impacted some component supply for footwear. Vertically integrated textile manufacturers are likely to be less affected due to less reliance on upstream. The worker resumption in China has ranged from 40- 70% outside of Hubei so far. According to Puma, they are seeing current shipments being delayed by ~3 weeks for February and March shipments. While utilisation rates in China could resume in late 2Q20 given the urgency, there could be potential risks for orderbooks, specifically for the China market. Furniture OEM Man Wah, which has moved most export production to Vietnam, is seeing minimal impact on its export business. In the longer term, brand customers will continue to demand more flexible and agile sourcing options in terms of location from key suppliers. Supply chains will see disruption as a result of delays in worker return and upstream material availability; over 3-6 months the orderbook changes will impact supply chains as well. • Beauty: Cosmetic brands’ offline sales are expected to take the biggest hit in 1Q20 and to gradually recover from 2Q20 onwards. Based on experience from past infectious disease outbreaks, beauty consumption is likely to recover to stronger than it was before the outbreak. L’Occitane and Sa Sa have 50-60% of their stores still closed, while Sephora has suspended all in-store makeup services for the time being. As offline stores’ foot traffic is expected to remain weak in the coming weeks, brands with the highest e-commerce exposure will be relatively better off, and L’Oreal comes out on top with roughly 50% of sales from online. For brands that have domestic factories, the work resumption rate is gradually ramping up, though the industry average is likely below 50% currently.