【英文】贝莱德报告：2024年中期全球展望（16页）

英文研究报告 2024年07月25日 09:11 管理员

We use scenarios to help identify where economies and markets may be headed on a six- to 12-month horizon. They help put parameters around very different states of the world – even if they don’t capture the many potential outcomes beyond that horizon. We worked with portfolio managers across BlackRock to develop five, distinct scenarios for the near-term outlook. We see two scenarios where equities can do well: one with a concentrated group of winners in AI, even with a tough macro backdrop, and another where AI-driven growth becomes more broad-based, leading to productivity gains and sharp rate cuts. The two hard economic landing scenarios differ on whether central banks can come to the rescue with rate cuts. The fifth is one of subdued growth and stubborn inflation, where inflation proves sticky, keeping central bank policy rates higher. The arrows on the right show how the assumed market impact can diverge sharply across these scenarios.