【英文】2021世界经济展望报告：预测全球增速为6% 中国为8.4%（192页）

Natural gas prices showed strong weather-induced  seasonal volatility. Asian liquefed natural gas prices  spiked to almost $40 per million British thermal units  (MMBTU) in January 2021, spilling over to European  prices (for example, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility  price rose to $7.3 per MMBTU), while US Henry  Hub spot prices reached $17.5 per MMBTU as a cold  snap crippled shale gas output in Texas amid strong  electricity demand in mid-February. High natural gas  price volatility sustained the power sector’s demand  for thermal coal. South African coal prices were also  boosted by strong Indian steel and cement industry  demand. Phaseout plans and rising emission costs continue to weigh on the demand outlook for coal over  the medium term. Base Metal Prices Rallied on a Stronger Recovery in  Industrial Production Base metal prices increased by 30 percent between  August 2020 and February 2021. 

The resurgent industrial activity in China and other advanced economies,  coupled with optimism about US fscal stimulus,  boosted sentiment toward metals. Te prices of copper  and iron ore, heavily used in the construction and  manufacturing sectors, increased by 30 percent and  35 percent, respectively. Te strong demand for electric  vehicles also pushed up prices of metals, such as cobalt  and nickel, that are used in their batteries. Precious  metal prices decreased by 6 percent after reaching  highs in August 2020 as demand for safe assets faded. Te IMF base metal price index is projected to  increase by 32.1 percent in 2021 and decrease by  4.5 percent in 2022. Uncertainty over the speed of the  global economic recovery and potential production and  trade disruptions due to the pandemic are the main  risks to the forecast (Figure 1.SF.1, panel 4). Precious  metal prices are expected to increase by 6.0 percent in  2021 and by 0.4 percent in 2022 because monetary  policies are expected to continue to be accommodative.