【英文】美联储报告：美联储经济褐皮书（54页）

英文研究报告 2024年02月07日 07:43 管理员

Economic activity declined slightly on average, employment was roughly flat, and prices increased at a modest pace since the last reporting period. Retail revenues increased slightly, while tourism activity grew at an above-average pace. Software and IT services firms reported stable revenues, while manufacturers experienced slightly weaker sales. Residential real estate sales held steady at very low levels, although the prospect of lower interest rates in 2024 led to increased optimism for the housing market. Commercial real estate activity weakened further modestly, and the outlook in that sector remained mostly pessimistic, despite expected declines in borrowing rates. In sectors aside from real estate, the outlook for 2024 remained cautiously optimistic. Labor Markets Employment was flat on average, and wage growth remained moderate. Hospitality and retail headcounts increased slightly, while employment was unchanged at software and IT firms. Manufacturing employment was also mostly stable, with the exception that a drug manufacturer carried out further large layoffs based on earlier plans. Hiring became easier on balance, and attrition rates fell to below-average levels. Nonetheless, labor scarcity persisted for auto mechanics and some highly skilled manufacturing workers. A shortage of restaurant help led one Vermont establishment to reduce its hours, but restaurant worker supply rebounded on Cape Cod. Wage growth was generally moderate, but some manufacturers and IT firms enacted above-average wage increases to compensate for price inflation. Contacts were not planning for major changes in employment moving forward, and wage pressures were expected to ease somewhat.