【英文】2024年全球经济展望报告：增长缓慢，不确定性高（22页）

Focusing on the prospects for 2024, global growth is likely  to come in materially below its average once again, with a  broadly similar pace of expansion as last year. The World Bank  forecasts an increase of 2.9% in global gross domestic product  (GDP) (see Table 1), while the OECD expects a slightly slower  gain of 2.7% (OECD 2023). Growth is likely to be well below  its average in advanced economies as, despite the likelihood  of some monetary easing – probably beginning in the  summer, central banks maintain restrictive monetary policies  to ensure victory in their battles against inflation. Meanwhile,  fiscal policies also look set to be contractionary in the major  advanced economies, while political uncertainty, amid major  elections this year, as well as elevated geopolitical tensions,  could weigh on confidence and spending.The risks to global growth remain to the downside this year,  amid a world characterised by significant uncertainty and  potential volatility. These include a major risk that the lagged  impact of global monetary tightening could lead to a harder  landing in the advanced economies, and/or major financial  stresses. This risk is perhaps not quite as heightened as  looked likely in late autumn, amid the subsequent somewhat  loosening in global financial conditions, a rising chance of a  soft landing for the U.S. economy, and given what looks like  a pivot towards monetary easing by advanced economies’  central banks this year. Nevertheless, if inflation remains  stubborn, forcing a major repricing of financial market  expectations for interest rates, then the magnitude of this risk  would increase again.