【英文】2024年全球经济展望报告：增长缓慢，不确定性高（22页）

英文研究报告 2024年02月21日 11:04 管理员

Focusing on the prospects for 2024, global growth is likely to come in materially below its average once again, with a broadly similar pace of expansion as last year. The World Bank forecasts an increase of 2.9% in global gross domestic product (GDP) (see Table 1), while the OECD expects a slightly slower gain of 2.7% (OECD 2023). Growth is likely to be well below its average in advanced economies as, despite the likelihood of some monetary easing – probably beginning in the summer, central banks maintain restrictive monetary policies to ensure victory in their battles against inflation. Meanwhile, fiscal policies also look set to be contractionary in the major advanced economies, while political uncertainty, amid major elections this year, as well as elevated geopolitical tensions, could weigh on confidence and spending.The risks to global growth remain to the downside this year, amid a world characterised by significant uncertainty and potential volatility. These include a major risk that the lagged impact of global monetary tightening could lead to a harder landing in the advanced economies, and/or major financial stresses. This risk is perhaps not quite as heightened as looked likely in late autumn, amid the subsequent somewhat loosening in global financial conditions, a rising chance of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, and given what looks like a pivot towards monetary easing by advanced economies’ central banks this year. Nevertheless, if inflation remains stubborn, forcing a major repricing of financial market expectations for interest rates, then the magnitude of this risk would increase again.