【英文】美国财政部报告：美国主要贸易伙伴宏观经济和外汇政策报告（47页）

英文研究报告 2023年12月05日 07:18 管理员

Among the remaining three drivers of real GDP, total government consumption and investment added a substantial, 0.7 percentage points to growth in the first half of 2023, after rebounding in last year’s second half to make an identical contribution. However, impetus from net international demand was far more modest in the first half of 2023, falling to 0.2 percentage points, a fraction of the leading contribution this component made in the second half of 2022. Exports of goods and services declined 1.9% at an annual rate in the first half of 2023, reflecting slowing global demand for U.S. products, while imports fell more, down -2.6%. Consequently, the trade deficit declined by $26.4 billion, after a more substantial narrowing of $192 billion in the second half of last year. Meanwhile, the contribution from private inventories in the second quarter of 2022 was more than reversed in the third quarter. The change in private inventories posed a 1.1 percentage point drag on growth in this year’s first half, after adding 0.5 percentage points in the second half of 2022. The drag in inventories was largely sourced in the wholesale sector. Labor markets remained strong in the first half of 2023, but signs of realignment in supply and demand continued to build. The historically rapid pace of payroll job creation in 2021 eased throughout 2022 and into the first half of 2023. The economy created an average 354,000 payroll jobs per month during the latter half of 2022, which stepped down to a monthly average of 257,000 jobs in this year’s first half. Even so, the pace is still consistent with that needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate. The unemployment rate (U-3), meanwhile, edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6% from December 2022 to June 2023, although during the first half of 2023, this rate fell to 3.4% in January and April, the lowest rate since May 1969, as a growing labor supply matched the pace of job creation.