【英文】瑞信报告：中国投资策略：2.45亿婴儿潮一代退休人口的投资机会（94页）

英文研究报告 2020年09月17日 07:34 管理员

Ageing is undoubtedly a structural long-term growth theme, in our view. The 1960s’ generation is retiring now, not only bringing great opportunities for businesses that serve them well, but also challenges in the context of such a significant demographic move. End markets likely to benefit include: travel; sportswear; e-commerce; property; health care; and financial services. Wealthier, more confident and willing to pay for quality They are wealthier, and more confident and willing to pay for quality than other generations, having benefited from improving education, the reform and opening programme and WTO entry. The CQi survey shows GEN60s tend to travel more (increasingly overseas), spend on quality healthcare services, entertain more in their own way and pay more attention to fitness. We see strong tailwinds for travel by baby boomers, thanks to more flexible schedules and higher disposable incomes, despite pandemic disruptions. ASEAN is the region most visited by China outbound tourists and medical tourism would gain momentum in the region. The CQi survey revealed that ~36% of baby boomers plan to increase spending on healthcare after retirement, with 16% willing to travel overseas for medical treatment.

Thailand would be a major beneficiary, while Singapore offers quality high-end specialty care and treatments for lifethreatening diseases. Malaysia is growing in recognition, on service quality and affordability. GEN60s prefer spending screen time on social media, videos/music, newsfeeds and shopping, and place “quality” and “necessity” over “price” for shopping decisions, leading to higher usage of Taobao and JD over PDD. Post-retirement, baby boomers expect to exercise more. The CQi survey suggests a higher brand awareness, with Li Ning and Nike their top 2 choices. The WHO Global Burden of Disease study expects China’s total burden of disease to rise at least by 40% by 2030E, given the ageing population. Baby boomers should contribute to higher hospital spend, being increasingly more willing to pay for healthcare services, as confirmed by CQi. High-end integrated private hospitals are likely to benefit, thanks to differentiated market position from public hospitals, strong medical teams given a competitive pay and working environment and more patient-oriented services that support patients’ willingness to pay. As part of the public hospital infrastructure, orders for big-ticket medical equipment such as MRI equipment, CT scanners, ventilators, dialysis machines and other equipment used in ICU wards and hospitals would also increase. Foreign manufacturers like Siemens Healthineers, Phillips, and Fresenius Medical Care still dominate the market, with domestic ones catching up. The CQi team found that baby boomers have a higher acceptance of moving into senior centres. Insurance funds have incentives to invest in retirement communities, given long-duration assets and liabilities match, and a boost to sales of insurance products.