【英文】瑞信报告：全球财富报告（56页）

Unemployment trends during 2020 have not  always echoed GDP trends due to differences  in labor market policies and practices. In some  European countries, wage subsidies and other  measures have limited layoffs, so that, as late as  June, when the unemployment rate in the United  States was 11%, it was only 8%–9% in France  and Italy, and just 4% in Germany – similar to  Britain in May. Greece and Spain, on the other  hand, had rates of 17% and 16% in May and  June, respectively. High unemployment effects  are also seen in Latin America and in some parts  of the Asia-Pacific region, such as Turkey and  the Philippines. Government budget balance effects are noteworthy. These tend to be largest in the highincome countries hardest hit by the pandemic,  such as Italy, the United Kingdom and the United  States. Not only are tax revenues depressed, but  these countries have also spent a great deal on  relief. Impacts in other countries are also sizable,  with an average 9% deficit increase anticipated  for the European Union as a whole, for example.  The predicted deficits in the United States and  the United Kingdom will raise their overall public  debt to about 115% and 125% of GDP, respectively. Rapid expansion of public debt has caused  concern in the past, but low interest rates make  the debt burden more manageable as long as  countries revert soon to normal GDP growth  rates. 

Countries with weaker credit ratings face  higher interest rates, so that some countries may  experience financing difficulties even if their deficit  increase is modest by the standards of Table 1.  And the huge extra demand for borrowing by  governments could lead to rising interest rates all  round as the global economy recovers.  Equity markets The first, highly visible verdict on the economic  implications of the pandemic was delivered by the  financial markets from mid-February onward. At  that time, very few countries other than China had  a significant number of COVID-19 cases, and  stock markets around the world were at or close  to their peak. The S&P 500 index in the United  States, for example, peaked on 19 February at  a level 13% higher than a year earlier and 61%  above five years ago. However, Figure 1 shows  that equity prices dived in high-income countries  from mid-February onward: the S&P 500 fell by  34%, the FTSE100 by 35%, the DAX by 39%,  and the Nikkei by 31%. The Shanghai index also  fell, but only by 13%. Each of these indexes  bottomed out between 18 March and 23 March. Markets gained confidence after 23 March, in  part due to the large scale of relief packages announced by governments in the G7 and other rich  countries. Although some fluctuations occurred,  progress was fairly steady during this second  phase and, by the end of June, most of the major  indexes in G7 countries were within 10% of their  peak earlier in the year. A notable exception was  the FTSE 100, reflecting the severity of the health  and economic impacts of the pandemic in Britain.