【英文】德银报告：中国房地产重新评估平衡增长的开发商潜力（91页）

英文研究报告 2020年11月23日 07:17 管理员

China's property sector has always been heavily regulated by central and local government policies, which were previously used as countercyclical tools to stabilize local level economic performance. During 2005-16, cycles in China's property market occurred roughly once every three years, and resulted in big swings in the valuations of developers. Nevertheless, the housing market has become less volatile since late 2016, with property prices and sales largely moving sideways in 2017-19. The main reason for this was a fundamental shift in the government's policy stance, aiming to maintain housing market stability. The main purpose of housing is purely accommodation, not investment. The change in policy landscape reshapes the risks and returns of the homebuilding industry. Less market risk: Nationwide boom-bust property cycle disappears Since 2017, the central government has delegated more property policy decisions to local governments.

Local governments have the discretion to implement and adjust local level policies, including home purchase restrictions, favorable policies for talent migrants, etc. The policies aim to achieve housing price stability over the medium/long term. As a result, property cycles have become less synchronized across cities. The correlation of property prices across 70 cities fell from 0.81 before 2017 to around 0.4 subsequently. While there are housing cycles at a provincial level, most developers have already expanded geographically or are in the process of regional expansion. This geographical diversification is a key underlying reason for developers' more stable sales performance, and is a factor that rating agencies consider when assigning ratings to the companies.