【英文】OEOC报告：2021年经合组织国家经济展望报告（266页）

英文研究报告 2020年12月14日 06:41 管理员

Many emerging-market economies and developing countries have been particularly hard hit by the pandemic. In some cases, extensive borrowing abroad to cushion the blow has added to existing challenges from high sovereign or corporate debt prior to the crisis. Debt restructuring for some of these borrowers is likely in the coming years. This process would be facilitated by increased transparency about the full extent of indebtedness, including contingent liabilities, and a more developed framework on how to deal with sovereign bankruptcy that includes all major creditors. Stronger international co-operation remains necessary to help end the pandemic more quickly, speed up the global economic recovery, and build on the G20 efforts to address debt problems of emerging-market economies and developing countries. The sharing of knowledge, medical and financial resources, and reductions in harmful bans to trade, especially in healthcare products, are essential to address the challenges brought by the pandemic.

International co-operation to ensure that a vaccine is available for everyone is necessary to ensure a faster rebound in global activity from the effects of the pandemic. Such preparation should also start now. The global recovery remains partial and uneven The economic outlook remains very uncertain, with the recovery in activity becoming increasingly hesitant. After the unprecedented sudden shock in the first half of the year, with global GDP in the second quarter of 2020 10% lower than at the end of 2019, output picked up sharply in the third quarter as containment measures became less stringent, businesses reopened and household spending resumed (Figure 1.1). Despite the welcome upturn, output in the advanced economies remained around 4½ per cent below prepandemic levels in the third quarter, close to the peak decline in output experienced during the global financial crisis. Without the prompt and effective policy support introduced in all economies to cushion the impact of the shock on household incomes and companies, output and employment would have been substantially weaker.