【英文】瑞银报告：全球房地产展望2021：后covid时代生存还是繁荣（304页）

英文研究报告 2020年12月21日 07:44 管理员

More broadly, our economists note that while housing did not lead us into this recession, it appears to be leading us out of it. That in itself is not unique – housing, after all, is the most interest-sensitive sector in the economy and tends to surge early in the recovery. In this instance, it is further propelled by two additional unique features of this pandemic (i) the physical isolation and work-from-home demands of the pandemic, along with a desire for more space; and (ii) a historic amount of stimulus that strengthened household income in a handful of countries (including the US, Japan, Canada, Australia) despite sharply rising unemployment.

Datacentres and Towers are likely to continue to benefit as workplaces become more agile, flexible and cloud-based, with rising data usage and increased carrier activity, with further digitalisation of the economy. That said, share performance has been driven by multiple expansion. With vaccines on the horizon, this may be harder to come by, but our analysts still see sustained mid-to-high single digit FFO growth. Changing shape of the market. The composition of the global listed real estate market has changed significantly over the past three years, driven by the widening divergence between the industrial and retail sectors, and more recently, the pressure on office markets. The rise of industrial has seen its market cap now supersede that of the pure-play office and equal that of retail names. This should challenge preconceived notions on the sector.