【英文】瑞信报告：氢，一个新投资前沿（80页）

英文研究报告 2020年12月29日 06:25 管理员

Hydrogen is set to become one of the most important and fast-growing low-carbon energy sources in the next 30 years, accounting for 18% of primary energy consumption by 2050 (vs ~0% currently), according to BP Energy Outlook. Following our Part 1 report in Europe, in this Part 2 of the hydrogen series from Credit Suisse Securities Research, we leverage the CS APAC Research Team’s expertise and provide insights on various parts of the supply chain. Although hydrogen development in APAC is still in the early stages compared to Europe, we have seen increasing efforts and ambitions of governments across the region in recent years in pursuing hydrogen as an alternative energy source for energy transition and emission reduction. Policy support a key driver for hydrogen in APAC Policy support is the driving force for hydrogen development given its current high cost. In APAC, Japan, Korea and Australia have already released country-level hydrogen development plans with detailed targets across the hydrogen value chain. The three countries are also at the forefront of hydrogen development, leveraging their advantages in technology, automobile industry and renewable energy.

China has yet to come up with an official action plan for domestic hydrogen development, but expectation of an official top-down action plan is high with the Chinese Government targeting net-zero carbon emissions by 2060. We expect the recent subsidy policy adjustments for fuel cell vehicles to set the tone for domestic hydrogen development in the medium term and a detailed country-level action plan is imminent. Hydrogen supply chain and end-use application The hydrogen supply chain mainly consists of production, storage/infrastructure and application. For hydrogen production, we leverage CS European Research Team’s Levellised Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) model to compare the production cost for grey, blue and green hydrogen. The results suggest that the current cost of green hydrogen (US$5/kg) more than doubles the cost of grey hydrogen under the existing production technology. However, with a potentially higher carbon price, enhanced efficiency of electrolysis and cheaper renewable generation, green hydrogen has the potential to achieve parity with grey hydrogen in the long run. The end use of hydrogen is currently dominated by refining (54%) and industrial & chemical processes (46%) (i.e., ammonia production and methanol production), while the use in transportation is almost negligible given the high cost and undeveloped infrastructure. With potentially more costcompetitive green hydrogen and the push for infrastructure construction by governments, we believe hydrogen can be promoted to a wider range of end-use applications, which include transportation, power, and basic material production.