【英文】摩根士丹利报告：中国消费2030（185页）

英文研究报告 2021年02月24日 06:26 管理员

We are turning more bullish on the size and growth pattern of China's consumption through 2030. China will continue to be a global consumption powerhouse, with the size of private consumption matching the current US market by 2030. Meanwhile, material shifts in consumption patterns are likely to take place, from young consumer focused to household demand driven, which will incrementally require a higher proportion of services in consumption. We see two key conclusions: (1) Bigger size than we thought – China to become a global consumption powerhouse by 2030, matching the size of the current US market We expect China's private consumption to reach US$12.7trn by 2030, 30% higher than our previous forecast of US$9.7trn.

A key driver will be resilient household income growth on the back of Urbanization 2.0, economic opening-up to retain supply chains, and reforms to attract capital inflows. Meanwhile, in the face of an emerging multipolar post-Covid world, China's policymakers are promoting the domestic consumer market as part of its 'domestic circulation' strategy, with digitalization and reforms resolving consumption bottlenecks (such as logistics, tax on imported consumer goods, and Hukou). This should unleash households' consumption potential and enhance e-commerce penetration for both goods and services, enabling consumption anytime, anywhere. As a result, the CAGR of China's private consumption will likely sustain at 7.9% in CNY terms over the next decade, one of the highest in the world, and its size will match the current US market by 2030, on our estimates.