【英文】摩根士丹利报告：全球商用汽车行业报告：绘制替代动力系统的采用情况（113页）

英文研究报告 2021年03月26日 07:19 管理员

FCEV Bear/BEV Bull View: Industry experts favor FCEV technology for the long haul (500+ mile ) market because most HeavyDuty BEV prototypes (including Daimler's eCascadia) have advertised ranges of only 250-300 miles/charge - and even less in practice. However, the TSLA semi could be a game changer with respect to BEV vs. FCEV use cases. TSLA has advertised its Cl8 Semi as capable of achieving a 300-600 mile range and ~30 minutes recharge with minimal payload penalty. If TSLA can achieve these metrics, FCEV adoption in long haul market will likely be more muted (<10% Class 8 penetration by 2050) given TSLA's cost advantage and the fact that electric infrastructure has a head start on Hydrogen across geographies due to passenger car adoption.

This will lead to short haul and medium duty applications going nearly 100% electric as well - especially since over 60 medium duty and bus BEV models are commercially available today with ranges and payloads that are sufficient for most medium duty applications. FCEV Bull/BEV Bear View: FCEV Bulls doubt that TSLA's semi will be able to reach a 500+ mile range without a significant payload reduction due to battery size and weight, so FCEV likely wins in the long haul market (as industry experts expect). Once FCEV penetration accelerates in the long haul market and hydrogen fueling infrastructure becomes more robust, FCEV powertrain technology can expand to use cases in medium and short haul heavy duty trucking, essentially leading to near 100% HD penetration by 2050 across geographies and significant (>50%) adoption in Medium Duty and Bus applications. These assumptions depend on the relative cost case for "green" hydrogen against renewable electricity charging infrastructure.