【英文】HSBC报告：中国远程医疗：到2030年，市场规模将达到1万亿元人民币（59页）

英文研究报告 2021年04月06日 07:09 管理员

Investors are very excited about the prospects of consumers in China switching to buying their medicinal drugs online instead of at hospitals or pharmacies, which is currently the norm. This change is also part of the four global disruptive technological themes – digital health, connectivity, automation, and experiential – outlined in The Edge of Disruption, 22 November 2020. Like all things e-commerce, it’s gaining traction with consumers. The problem is the data isn’t readily available and it’s certainly not standardised. Our report seeks to fix this by sizing up the addressable market for telemedicine platforms, figuring out how much of the market can move online over the next decade, and looking closely at chronic disease patients, given that this is the largest area for the prescription drug market. Along the way we interview medical practitioners and look at a hypothetical bill of a Type 2 diabetic patient to see how that could change.

In 2019, online pharmacy sales were RMB125bn versus nationwide pharmaceutical sales of RMB2.3trn, implying e-commerce sales have only penetrated 5% of the market. That leaves plenty of room for growth. We estimate the online pharmacy market to reach RMB1trn in 2030e, an almost 10-fold increase, fuelled by (1) growing demand for medicines amid an ageing population, high levels of obesity, a high percentage of smokers, and a lack of exercise, all of which will boost the number of chronic disease patients in China, and (2) as consumers switch to buying medicines online given cheaper prices in some cases and the convenience that comes with complementary health management and medical services provided by telemedicine platforms.